Saturday morning update: Refresh for more analysis and graph Paramount/Skydance Top Gun: Maverick held throughout the week, and it’s holding brilliant stability on weekend 2. I hear the -33% ease is one of the best for a wide open release north of 100 million dollars, ahead of the -40% posted by Star Wars: The Force Awakens in December 2015. Top Gun 2 looked $84.5M (again, rivals have it higher, but why do away with your skis in this pandemic market) who will put it at $290 million Sunday EOD; easily the best Tom Cruise has ever seen at the domestic box office. The Joseph Kosinski-directed film grossed a second Friday at $25 million, $5 million before where we saw it yesterday afternoon.
EntTelligence reports that 1.8 million moviegoers came to see Top Gun 2 in its second Friday, its admissions count north of 17M. The average ticket price for the movie went from $12.68 to $12.55.
The sequel is largely played out: in weekend 2 PostTrak, Top Gun 2 sees 38% over 45s, with the 25-34 crowd providing the best attendance yesterday at 23% and the 35-44 crowd at 20%. Always wonderful five-star outings and a 74% definite recommendation. Men over 25 were fat yesterday at 41% (97% score), then women over 25 at 39% (96% score), with both men and women under 25 at 10% (scores of 93% and 82% respectively).
Top Gun 2 topped all titles in the 22nd weekend of the year for an estimated total of $117.8 million, down 32% from the same pre-pandemic weekend in 2019. How can do we continue to lag behind in a market where there’s a big movie leading the charge? Same old answers: it boils down to lack of product and studio caution. Over the weekend of May 31-June 2, after Memorial Day, three new studio titles made use of a variety of demos: godzilla king of the monsters (which was No. 1 with $47.8 million, Rocketman with $25.7 million and a horror movie Mom with $18 million. Then there was weekend 2 of Aladdin second with $42.8 million). For the rest of the summer, studios seem to be dancing and weaving around the big blockbusters on the calendar, which is to say no one is going far against Jurassic World Dominion June 10, Light year June 17, Minions: The Rise of Gru July 1 or Thor: Love and Thunder July 8. This type of booking by the majors signifies their current belief that this is a one shot per weekend market. They even practice this method of distribution until August with smaller films, and this is a time when it is possible to reserve more on the schedule. What’s optimistic is that just because summer is over doesn’t mean people stop going to the movies, as evidenced by last October. But we need product. Hopefully the turnaround of older demos here by Top Gun: Maverick will give others the confidence to put more on the schedule and because there are plenty of opportunities out there.
Other big things are happening at the box office without any major studio-wide entries: A24 Everything everywhere all at once crosses $60 million this weekend with an estimate $1.9M. When will the Daniels movie end? Not yet.
The weekend’s other prolific opener is NEON’s moderate release (Comscore originally put it on such a wide schedule) of David Cronenberg’s perverted dystopian surgery. Future Crimes who is eyeing $1.17M at tenth place in 773 locations in 146 markets or a theater average of $1.5,000. The picture received a six-minute standing ovation when it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival. This is Cronenberg’s first film since 2014. Star maps. A fresh rating of 78% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes and a split result from those who bought tickets at 51%. I hear the movie did well in major cities on the coasts and across Canada, but the further you go from those markets, the more ticket sales go down. No surprise because Cronenberg has cult appeal. Its biggest box office opening belongs to one of the few major studio-distributed films, namely 20th Century Fox. Fly which opened to $7 million and reached $40.4 million by the end of the summer of 1986. After that, the filmmaker’s second-biggest opening at the box office was his Stephen King feature film adaptation of 1983 The dead zone with $4.55M; and they were major studio titles in their heyday. Here’s what’s interesting, and again, okay, it’s pretty small, but when you get into Cronenberg’s basic, hard-core genre titles at the domestic box office, the opening here for Future Crimes ranks behind 1988 Dead ringtones (opening of $3 million in 1,042 cinemas; which Future Crimes plays as accompanying piece to) and 1983 Videodrome ($1.19 million in 600 theaters). So, according to Cronenberg’s slide rule, Future Crimes is normal for the course.
Social media company RelishMix observed “Neon took a simple approach to Future Crimes on social media with materials mostly embedded in studio channels with YouTube views at over 4 million views for owned and earned videos for the three trailers/spots – plus there are seven Facebook videos up as as film platforms from the premiere in Cannes. Among Cronenberg devotees on social media, RelishMix reports, “Chatter is positive as horror fans are definitely drawn to the horror maestro’s latest psychological puzzler, ‘Love that even a 79-year-old Cronenberg years can still shake the places better than anyone – and the cast with the very selective roles of Viggo Mortensen and Kristen Stewart fanatics too.
Friday noon update: Moviegoers don’t lose that loving feeling for Top Gun: Maverick this weekend as the film is set to become Tom Cruise’s highest-grossing film at the domestic box office with $273.6 million. The three-time Oscar nominee’s previous high-earning title was Steven Spielberg’s 2005 sci-fi title War of the Worlds at $234 million.
Top Gun 2 should beat War of the Worlds Saturday; the sequel directed by Joseph Kosinski plans a second Friday of $20 million-61% against last Friday (+ previews) on the way for 3 days of $68 million, -46%. Some rival studios see it much higher, but again, it’s still early days.
Top Gun 2 ended its first week with $205.6 million. This weekend, the Paramount/Skydance movie will hover over cruise life totals such as Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol ($209M), Mission: Impossible 2 ($215M) and Mission: Impossible – Fall ($220 million, the highest-grossing domestic title in this franchise).
Here’s what the rest of the weekend looks like according to industry estimates:
1.) Top Gun: Maverick (Per) 4,751 (+16) theaters, Fri. $20 million (-61%), 3 days $68 million (-46%), Overall $273.6 million/Week 2
2.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 3,765 (-40) theaters, Fri $2 million (-55%), 3 days $6.5M (-59%)/Total $385.9 million/Week 5
3.) Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th/Dis) 3,425 theaters, Fri. $1.1M (-80%) 3 days $4M-$5M (-64%), Together $22.2M+/Week 2
4.) The villains (Uni) 2,869 (-75) theaters, Fri $850,000 (-32%), 3 days $3.1M (-29%), Together $87 million/Week 7
5.) Downton Abbey – A New Era (Foc) 3,451 (-379) cinemas, Fri. $850,000 (-54%), 3 days $2.6M (-55%), Together $35.3M/Week 3